IFS highlights

Assorted research highlights from my nine years or so (2017 – 2026) at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Fiscal traffic lights

This is probably the piece of IFS work I’m most proud of: an analysis of the problems with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy and a detailed proposal for what an alternative fiscal framework could look like.

From fiscal rules to fiscal traffic lights: rethinking the UK fiscal framework, IFS, February 2026.

Watch (or listen to) a discussion the proposals with Helen Miller on the IFS Zooms In podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmeGpSaQ9YA

And/or watch me present the key findings and recommendations at an event at the Royal Society, followed by a panel discussion with Rupert Harrison, Victoria Clarke and Chris Giles, chaired by Gus O’Donnell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_quJWjDc1E

I wrote about the research for The Observer, the proposal was discussed in the House of Commons, and we used the traffic lights in the IFS analysis of the 2026 Spring Forecast.

Selected other media coverage: Financial Times, BBC, Telegraph, Bloomberg, Reuters.

Other work on fiscal policy

I’ve published on a wide range of other fiscal policy topics. Some selected highlights include:

  • A note of caution on fiscal technocracy, IFS, May 2024 - an argument that we should be cautious about handing over greater powers over fiscal policy to unelected technocrats. I also discussed the role of the OBR with former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on this podcast.
  • Public investment: what you need to know, IFS, April 2024 - an explainer and discussion of the key policy and measurement issues related to public investment.
  • Public sector net worth as a fiscal target, IFS Green Budget, October 2023 - an exploration of the pros and cons (mainly cons) of targeting public sector net worth.
  • Chancellors’ responses to economic news (with Carl Emmerson, Isabel Stockton and Sam van de Schootbrugge), IFS Green Budget, September 2023 - analysis demonstrating that Chancellors react asymmetrically to economic shocks, a pattern which leads to higher debt and a bigger state, and which means that the OBR’s central forecast isn’t central in practice.
  • Public spending, pay and pensions (with Bee Boileau and Laurence O’Brien), IFS Green Budget, October 2022 - includes, among other things, analysis of public-private differentials in pay and pensions.
  • The planning and control of UK public expenditure, 1993-2015 (with Rowena Crawford and Paul Johnson), IFS, July 2018 - my first ever project at IFS, which contributed to a subsequent project (and book) on the UK spending framework, led by Christopher Hood.
  • The IFS Be the Chancellor tool, which lets you alter plans for tax and public spending, and see the impact on the public finances.
  • Persuading the BBC to pronounce PSNFL as “persnuffle” on More or Less.
  • This four-part podcast series on how to fix the UK tax system (parts one, two, three, and four), recorded with Helen Miller and Stuart Adam. I played the role of useful idiot.
  • Various editions of the IFS Green Budget, the flagship annual publication analysing the options and challenges facing the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. I was one of the editors in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025.

Public sector productivity

To my knowledge, this report (co-authored with Max Warner in December 2022) was the first to draw attention to the pronounced reduction in NHS productivity after the pandemic: NHS funding, resources and treatment volumes.

I summarised the findings in this X/Twitter thread and discussed the report on BBC More or Less with Tim Harford. (I’ve also been on More or Less to discuss Baumol’s cost disease and how NHS productivity is performing in more recent data). It was covered in various other media oulets but I don’t have the links so you’ll just have to take my word for it.

Other analyses of public sector productivity include:

Health and social care

I’ve published analysis of various aspects of the UK health and social care system, including:

Academic research

Publications

Working papers