Fiscal traffic lights
This is probably the piece of IFS work I’m proudest of: an analysis of the problems with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy and a detailed proposal for what an alternative fiscal framework could look like.
From fiscal rules to fiscal traffic lights: rethinking the UK fiscal framework, Institute for Fiscal Studies, February 2026.
Watch a (or listen to) discussion the proposals with Helen Miller on the IFS Zooms In podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmeGpSaQ9YA
Watch me present the key findings and recommendations, followed by a panel discussion with Rupert Harrison, Victoria Clarke and Chris Giles, chaired by Gus O’Donnell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_quJWjDc1E
I wrote about the research for The Observer here.
Selected other media coverage: Financial Times, BBC, Telegraph, Bloomberg, Reuters.
Other work on fiscal policy
I’ve published work on a wide range of other fiscal policy topics. Some selected highlights include:
A note of caution on fiscal technocracy, Institute for Fiscal Studies, May 2024 - an argument that we should be cautious about handing over gerater powers over fiscal policy to unelected technocrats.
Public investment: what you need to know, Institute for Fiscal Studies, April 2024 - an explainer and discussion of the key policy and measurement issues related to public investment.
Public sector net worth as a fiscal target, Institute for Fiscal Studies Green Budget, October 2023 - an exploration of the pros and cons (mainly cons) of targeting public sector net worth.
Chancellors’ responses to economic news (with Carl Emmerson, Isabel Stockton and Sam van de Schootbrugge), Institute for Fiscal Studies Green Budget, September 2023 - a nice piece of analysis demonstrating that Chancellors react asymmetrically to economic shocks, spending more when there’s ‘good news’ and borrowing more when there’s ‘bad news’.
Public spending, pay and pensions (with Bee Boileau and Laurence O’Brien), Institute for Fiscal Studies Green Budget, October 2022 - includes, among other things, analysis of public-private differentials in pay and pensions.
The IFS Be the Chancellor tool, which lets you alter plans for tax and public spending, and see the impact on the public finances.
Public sector productivity
To my knowledge, this report (co-authored with Max Warner in December 2022) was the first to draw attention to the pronounced reduction in NHS productivity after the pandemic: NHS funding, resources and teratment volumes. I summarised the findings in (my most successful ever) X/Twitter thread here and discussed the report on BBC More or Less with Tim Harford. (I’ve also been on More or Less to discuss Baumol’s cost disease and how NHS productivity is performing in more recent data),
I’ve published various other analyses of public sector productivity, including:
- Productivity in the Crown Court (with Magdalena Dominguez and Joe Tomlinson), Institute for Fiscal Studies, June 2025.
- NHS hospital productivity: some positive news (with Olly Harvey-Rich and Max Warner), Institute for Fiscal Studies, November 2024.
- The fiscal implications of public service productivity (with Max Warner), Institute for Fiscal Studies, May 2024.
- Is there really an NHS productivity crisis? (with Max Warner), Institute for Fiscal Studies, November 2023.